Georgia Potential

Thanks to Twissso

From 19th March presentation

"14 prospects have been identified on Block VIA alone, with gross unrisked potential totaling more than 380 million barrels. Drilling depths are relatively shallow at an expected range of 2000‐ 3000 meters."

Assume that the total of the 14 prospects is 380m and apply some rudimentary calculations. 380m/14 = 27m per prospect....on one of the two blocks. Range has a 50% interest so that's 13.5m per prospect.

Compare that 13.5m figure to NCR.

Range has 25% of Smith and 20% for the rest. Look at the P1/P2/P3 figures for oil and condensates combined (put the gas aside for now) - the total is 16m oil and 16m condensate (priced roughly the same so let's say 32m). Range's cut of that is about 7m.

Putting aside the NCR gas, you could think of each Georgian prospect as being twice the size of NCR and there are FOURTEEN prospects on ONE of the TWO licenses. That's crazy!

That illustrates nicely my earlier post titled "forget about Texas". Georgia is where it's at (less risk than Puntland, bigger stake, more control, easier to get producing).

I have been doing my calcs now for ranges 1bbn barrels of oil this is what I get.

Without fundraising and assuming £4stg per barrel and not including other assets.

Shares in issue = 1,227,020,000
Unrisked Oil – 1,000,000,000

Risked Oil (50% Cos) = 500,000 Value per share = 162p
Risked Oil (40% Cos) = 400,000 Value per share = 130p
Risked Oil (30% Cos) = 300,000 Value per share = 97p
Risked Oil (20% Cos) = 200,000 Value per share = 65p
Risked Oil (10% Cos) = 100,000 Value per share = 32p

Now with £15m fundraising @10p

Additional Shares = 150,000,000
Revised Total shares = 1,377,020,000

Risked Oil (50% Cos) = 500,000 Value per share = 145p
Risked Oil (40% Cos) = 400,000 Value per share = 116p
Risked Oil (30% Cos) = 300,000 Value per share = 87p
Risked Oil (20% Cos) = 200,000 Value per share = 58p
Risked Oil (10% Cos) = 100,000 Value per share = 29p

Now Taking the fund raising into consideration and since very few companies ever get the true value of the oil in ground. The following is a breakdown of the revised sp assuming 50% value of its potential.

Risked Oil (50% Cos) = 500,000 Value per share = 72p
Risked Oil (40% Cos) = 400,000 Value per share = 58p
Risked Oil (30% Cos) = 300,000 Value per share = 43p
Risked Oil (20% Cos) = 200,000 Value per share = 29p
Risked Oil (10% Cos) = 100,000 Value per share = 14p

I have set up a little spreadsheet to calculate all this, but I think I am along the right line. Huge potential.